Trends in Public Crime Concerns in Germany: A Bounding Analysis of Periodic Change
Citation (APA 7)
Yastrebov, G., Trinidad, A., & Leopold, T. (2024). Trends in Public Crime Concerns in Germany: A Bounding Analysis of Periodic Change. SocArXiv.
Abstract
In this paper, we ask whether broader societal changes in Germany over the last three decades have been accompanied by a secular rise or decline in public concerns about crime. We conceptualize the aggregate effect of these changes as a period effect to be identified in a framework of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Upon evaluation of previous research, we argue that the secular trend is challenging to identify directly both for empirical and theoretical reasons. However, using Fosse and Winship’s bounding approach to APC analysis, we show that the challenge can be resolved indirectly, and identify a declining period trend under an intuitive and theoretically warranted assumption that crime concerns are unlikely to decrease from late adolescence into adulthood.